What's at stake in control of the Senate?
Approval or disapproval of Biden nominees
The upper chamber is 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaker -- so any one seat could determine the majority. If Republicans win back power in November's midterms, President Joe Biden will likely struggle to get approval for his nominees, including federal judges like Supreme Court justices. If Democrats keep the Senate, they will be able to confirm such choices even if Republicans still flip the House and stymie the party’s legislative agenda.
What are each party's pickup opportunities?
Republicans see their top flip opportunities as Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. Democrats are eyeing GOP-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though all but Pennsylvania have become tougher climbs.
FiveThirtyEight's 2022 Senate forecast
The odds assessed by the election model change multiple times a day, so be sure to . There is also a forecast for and .
Will Republicans or Democrats win? Make your own predictions
Now is your chance to don FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver's hat and . Think Republican Herschel Walker will win Georgia's Senate seat over incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock? Or want to predict a win for Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan over Republican J.D. Vance in Ohio's Senate race? Feel free to make that selection -- and more! -- to see how it hypothetically affects the FiveThirtyEight forecast.
Can Democrats hold on in Nevada?
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is perhaps the most endangered incumbent in her party. Running for a second term against former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, she is being buffeted by stiff economic headwinds in a tourism-reliant state.
Can Democrats flip Pennsylvania?
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is looking to flip the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. Fetterman is running against former TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz and has held consistent leads, though the race as Fetterman recovers from a stroke and is attacked over the economy and his record on public safety.